Painful defeat against Newcastle’ Tottenham’s probability of 4th place in EPL is 27.3%

 Change in probability of entering top 4 predicted by supercomputer. Opta homepage

Tottenham Hotspur's chances of finishing fourth in the Premier League have decreased.

Opta, a statistics specialist, predicted the probability of Premier League clubs advancing to the UEFA Champions League next season using a supercomputer as the 33rd round of the 2023-2024 season of the English Premier League ended on the 15th (local time).

In the Premier League, the top 4 teams advance to the Champions League.

As of the 33rd round, Aston Villa is in 4th place with 63 points from 19 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses, and Tottenham is in 5th place with 60 points from 18 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses. Tottenham has played one less game than Aston Villa. However, the situation is unfavorable as they are 3 goals behind in goal difference.

The supercomputer also predicted that Aston Villa had a 72.4% chance of finishing in the top four. On the other hand, Tottenham's probability was 27.3%. As of March 18, Tottenham had 48.4% and Aston Villa had 47.5%.

Tottenham suffered a painful 0-4 defeat against Newcastle United in the 33rd round on the 13th.

The remaining six matches are not as good as Aston Villa. Tottenham has to face Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City. There is also Chelsea. Among Aston Villa's five games, the only team in the top eight is Liverpool.

There are variables. This is because the Champions League will be expanded from 32 teams to 36 teams. One additional ticket will be given to two leagues with good performance in European club competitions this season. If the Premier League is included in the top two leagues, up to 5th place can advance to the Champions League.

Currently, in the Premier League, Manchester City and Arsenal have advanced to the quarterfinals of the Champions League, Liverpool and West Ham United have advanced to the quarterfinals of the Europa League, and Aston Villa has advanced to the quarterfinals of the Europa Conference League.

In this season's league rankings (as of the 15th), Italy is in first place with a club coefficient of 18.428 points, Germany is in second place with 16.785 points, and England is in third place with 16.750 points. Four of Italy's seven teams survived, Germany's three of seven teams survived, and England's five of eight teams survived.
  
According to the supercomputer's prediction, there is a 57.8% chance that England will be given an additional ticket. 

If the top 5 players qualify for the Champions League, Tottenham's chances of advancing to the Champions League will increase significantly. Aston Villa's probability is 99.1%, Tottenham's probability is 95.0%.

The gap between 4th place Aston Villa and 6th and 7th place Newcastle and Manchester United (50 points) is 13 points. Tottenham, ranked 5th, is also ahead by 10 points. Opta predicted, “It is a gap that can be overturned only if Tottenham loses 4 of the remaining 6 games and Newcastle wins all 6 games. That is highly unlikely.”



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